Auckland population may top 2m within decade
Auckland’s population is tipped to increase from about 1.7 million currently to two million by early next decade, according to Stats NZ.
Latest figures show it is on course to have the highest average annual growth of New Zealand’s 16 regions over the next 30 years, as a result of net migration and having more births than deaths.
Hamish Slack, population estimates and projections manager, says the two-million-milestone for Auckland may come earlier or later than the early 2030s depending on migration levels over the coming years.
Auckland is home to just over one-third of the population, 34 per cent, but by 2048 it may make up 37 per cent.
“The medium-growth projection suggests Auckland’s population could expand by another 300,000 people by 2033 – an average of about 60 extra people every day, or 1,900 a month,” explains Slack.
Population growth rates in key areas such as Northland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Canterbury are projected to slow in the long term.
With an ageing population, all regions except Auckland, Waikato, Gisborne, Wellington and Canterbury are tipped by Stats NZ to have natural decreases by the late 2040s, with more deaths than births.
“The total number of people who will be living in each area in the future is uncertain,” adds Slack.
“However, what is certain is that every area of New Zealand will have more older people.”
The medium projections suggest the West Coast is the only region that will have a lower population in 2048 than in 2018 because of more deaths than births and low net migration.
Its population was 32,400 in 2020 but looks set to decline in the early 2030s and hit 30,600 in 2048. Low and high projections suggest the population may range from 25,500 to 36,000 people in 2048.
Of New Zealand’s 67 territorial authority (TA) areas – or city and district council areas – 61 are expected to have more people in 2048 than in 2018.
The fastest growing areas are expected to be Selwyn, west of Christchurch, and Queenstown-Lakes districts. The six TA areas tipped to have smaller populations are Waitomo, Ruapehu, Buller, Grey, Westland and Gore.
