'High levels' of net migration
Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 152,200 and migrant departures at 96,100 in the 12 months ended March 2019, according to Stats NZ's latest figures. This resulted in a provisional estimate of annual net migration of 56,100.
“We’ve seen sustained high levels of net migration over the last five years,” says senior population insights manager Brooke Theyers.
“Annual net migration has ranged between 48,000 and 64,000 since the year ended December 2014. The only previous time it reached these levels was over a much shorter period over 2002 to 2003.”
With each extra month of data, the migration estimation model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate.
Provisionally estimated net migration for the year ended February 2019 has been revised down to 55,100 from 61,600. Provisionally estimated migrant arrivals were lower, and migrant departures higher, than initial estimates. Consequently, the revised provisional net migration is 6,500 lower than initial estimates.
Migration estimates up to November 2017 are now final. Estimates after November 2017 are subject to further revision, especially months after October 2018.
The provisional estimate of net migration for the year ended October 2018 is 51,200. Migrant arrivals are provisionally estimated at 143,800 and migrant departures at 92,700.
These compare with the estimated 142,500 migrant arrivals and 97,200 migrant departures first published in January 2019. Net migration was estimated at 45,200.
“When the October estimates were first published in January 2019, only 88 per cent of border crossings were definitively classified,” says Theyers.
“Now, in May 2019, 98 per cent can be classified and only two per cent need to be modelled.
“Given there were 13.9 million border crossings in the October 2018 year, this two per cent equates to 180,000 arrivals and 120,000 departures.”
In the year ended October 2018, estimated migrant arrivals were mostly citizens of Asian countries or Oceania. The largest groups were citizens of New Zealand on 35,600, China on 15,700, followed by India, with 14,700.
