Net migration takes tumble

Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 153,100 and migrant departures at 91,600 in the 12 months ended February 2019, says Stats NZ.  This resulted in a provisional estimate of annual net migration of 61,600.

“Provisional annual net migration of 61,600 in the year ended February 2019 is near the highest reported under the new outcomes-based measure,” population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers says.

“However, net migration data is subject to revision under the new outcomes-based measure, and revisions may be significant in the first few months after initial release.”

“We encourage data users to look at both the latest available figures and annual net migration from a few months earlier, for example, the 52,200 annual net migration in the year ended September 2018.”

Year ended September 2018

With each extra month of data, the migration estimation model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate.

“We can classify most border crossings as short-term or long-term after four or five months,” says Theyers.

“As a result, the provisional estimates published today for the year ended September 2018 are less variable and have more certainty than when they were first released in January.”

The provisional estimate of net migration for the year ended September 2018 is 52,200. Migrant arrivals are provisionally estimated at 144,100 and migrant departures at 91,900.

These compare with an estimated 141,200 migrant arrivals and 95,900 migrant departures when first published in January 2019. Net migration was estimated at 45,300.