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475,000 EVs will cut emissions

Posted on 10 April, 2017

The BusinessNZ Energy Council (BEC) have released the second in a series of reports looking at various energy scenarios to 2050. The reports look at ways New Zealand can meet its Paris Agreement target by reducing emissions in key industries, such as transport, agriculture and industrial production. "The challenge of meeting our Paris Agreement target of a 30 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 lies ahead of us," said BEC Chair Hon David Caygill. "In taking our scenarios work to the next level we can now better understand the scale of the challenges and nature of the opportunities to reduce emissions.” Transport makes up 40 per cent of New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions, with domestic surface transport taking 43 per cent of that stake, or 16 per cent of total emissions. Personal car use generated 8.3 Mt CO2 in 2010. The report predicts two scenarios, labelled kayak and waka. In the kayak scenario, a global deal is agreed upon but international communities are weak at reducing emissions. Carbon agreements are ad-hoc and fragmented and the government turns to the market to drive uptake to low-impact technology. In the waka scenario, global leaders unanimously agree to deals to reduce climate change, and New Zealand governance becomes hands-on to reduce emissions instead of relying on market forces. By 2030, the BEC claims, personal car transport will produce 8.2 Mt CO2 in the kayak scenario, essentially the same as it is now. In the waka scenario, however, emissions drop to 5.9 Mt CO2. Fuel consumption in 2030 follows a similar pattern, with a two per cent decline under the kayak scenario and 27 per cent in the waka scenario. In the kayak scenario, a further 277,000 petrol-powered cars are on New Zealand roads. EV uptake is singled out as the biggest potential reduction in emissions via personal cars. In the kayak scenario, 33,000 EVs are on New Zealand roads by 2030. This number increases to 475,000 in the waka scenario. "Our two scenarios describe different ways the energy and transport sectors can contribute towards emissions reduction,” Caygill said. "For the first time across the entire New Zealand energy and transport sectors, we now have modelling that reveals just how sensitive New Zealand’s energy emissions are to the key uncertainties the sector is grappling with.”